Dwayne Johnson’s latest holiday action-comedy, Red One, has underperformed at the box office, following a lackluster debut and a steep second-weekend decline. Directed by Jake Kasdan and starring Johnson alongside Chris Evans, the film follows a mismatched duo—one naughty and one nice—as they attempt to rescue Santa Claus (J.K. Simmons) from kidnappers and save Christmas.
Despite high expectations, Red One opened to a modest $32.1 million two weekends ago, far below the anticipated figures for a film with a reported production budget of between $200 million and $250 million. The film is now projected to earn just $13.2 million during its second weekend at the domestic box office. This brings its cumulative total to $52.9 million, reflecting a sharp 59% drop from its opening weekend. This steep decline mirrors the performance of Johnson’s 2022 film Black Adam, which also saw a 59% drop—his worst since The Fate of the Furious in 2017, which dropped 61.1%.
What the Week 2 Drop Means for Red One
The significant second-weekend drop presents a challenging outlook for Red One, particularly considering its weak start. To break even, the film would need to gross between $500 million and $625 million—typically, films must earn about 2.5 times their production budget to cover costs. With its current trajectory, it seems unlikely that Red One will reach that threshold in theaters.
However, its struggles at the box office may not be as critical to its overall success. Originally conceived as a Prime Video exclusive, Red One was always intended to be more of a holiday streaming option than a blockbuster theatrical release. Box office performance is secondary to its streaming potential, and the film’s strong audience reception—reflected in a 91% verified audience score on Rotten Tomatoes—could lead to solid viewership once it lands on digital platforms.
The Bigger Picture for Dwayne Johnson
Although Red One has faced significant challenges at the box office, Johnson’s career prospects remain promising. The actor is set to reprise his role as Maui in the highly anticipated Moana 2, which has already broken records for first-day ticket pre-sales for a 2024 animated film. With its release just weeks after Red One, Moana 2 is expected to perform much better at the box office, further cementing Johnson’s box office viability despite the setbacks of his recent films.
In summary, while Red One’s disappointing second-week performance raises questions about its theatrical success, its future likely hinges on streaming success, where Johnson’s star power could still deliver significant results.
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